The Best Horse Races To Bet On-Aussieraces.com
There is non stop racing these days and all types of races for us to bet on from country maidens to the Melbourne Cup. As punters which races offer us the best opportunities to make a profit? There are a number of factors to look for when assessing a race as a betting proposition -
(1) Races With Well Exposed Form
This goes without saying really. Only by assessing past performances can we get a real handle on how a horse is likely to perform in the future.
(2) Races Where The Runners’ Fitness Levels Are Known
If the horses in an event have all recently raced, this allows us to gauge their fitness levels. On the other hand, races in which some of the key runners are resuming from spells and have unclear levels of fitness can be a betting trap - as a horse won’t win if it’s not fit enough. It was Bart Cummings who famously said “A fit horse will beat a class horse (that isn’t fit)”.
(3) Races With Horses From The Same Form Pool
Many of the world’s most successful punters operate on the Hong Kong races because there is a limited pool of horses which regularly race against each other. This makes them easier to line up. In Australia we may not be so lucky, but on occasions we can still find races where many of the contenders have come through the same lead up races allowing us to size them up against each other. For example, most of the three year old fillies running in the VRC Oaks come through the same lead up races including the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Wakeful Stakes. On the other hand, if you come across a race where there are runners with form from all over the place, its like comparing apples with oranges, and lining them up can be full of pitfalls.
(4) Races Where The Favourite Looks Vulnerable
If the hot favourite in a race represents a risk, this means that other runners are likely to be winning chances and at value odds. Such a scenario can come about when the favourite isn’t fully fit as it’s resuming from a spell or recovering from a setback, is poorly weighted, doesn’t map well, has an inexperienced apprentice rider, is very poorly drawn or is racing over an unsuitable distance amongst other things.
(5) Mind The Quality
Quality horses win more races than lower quality gallopers. In a maiden event, none of the contenders have won a race, whereas at the other end of the scale in a Group One WFA event, you’ll usually find gallopers with high strike rates. Quality race horses are more reliable and tend to have more consistent form patterns than lower class gallopers. This means that they’ll be more reliable and consistent as betting propositions too.
(6) Smaller Is Better
Aussieraces.com research shows that bookmakers offer better percentages and odds on smaller fields than they do on larger ones. If you want to get better value odds from bookmakers, you’re certainly much more likely to get them in a race with a small field rather than say a 24 horse Newmarket Handicap field down the straight six at Flemington (See our article on ‘Field Sizes and Bookmaker Percentages’).As bookmakers generally operate with smaller margins on smaller sized race fields, you’ll get better returns in the long run by investing on these races.
Aussieraces.com September 2016