Have you ever stood close up to the starting stalls as a field jumps away?
The first time I did what really surprised me was just how vocal the jockeys were. They shouted at other riders to let them know where their mounts were or where they wanted to go as they attempted to settle their horses into running positions.

Jockeys obviously place a lot of importance in getting their mounts into a suitable running position – and for good reason. The running position that a horse settles into in the first part of a race largely determines its winning prospects.

In his landmark book ‘Winning More’ Don Scott wrote about the nineteenth century punting legend Pittsburg Phil. This is what he said -

“Phil always tried to predict how a race would be run, what horses would lead, what horses would sit off the pace, and what horses would settle at the rear. He also tried to predict how fast or slow the pace would be. A fast pace would suit some horses, a slow pace would suit others. His punting success often depended on the accuracy of those predictions. He believed that horses coming from the rear had a hard task, and were at a real disadvantage”.

Pittsburg Phil was of course envisioning what we these days call race or ‘Speed Maps’. Standard speed maps tend to show us two things – where each horse is likely to settle in the run and the expected tempo of a race. This kind of speed map gives us some idea about a horse's winning chances – but what if we could put an actual figure on it – i.e. work out exactly how many leaders, on pacers or back markers etc. won?

To find this out we studied hundreds of races. The results of our research are displayed below in Diagram One. The diagram shows how far back from the leader the eventual winners of races settled in the run:

             Diagram One – How Many Lengths From the Leader Winners Settle

What do the figures tell us? Basically, that the best position for a horse to be in is up on the pace - 42% of all races are won by on pace runners. Also, 28% come from midfield in the run and 22% from the leading division. Of course, our friend Phil was spot on – back markers win only 8% of races. To be more specific, horses which settle at the rear of the field win only 2% - or 1 in every  50 races. We should keep that figure in mind the next time we are considering betting on a horse which is likely to settle last in the run. Sure, their characteristic big finishes are exciting to watch, but their very low strike rate means that consistently backing them is a quick way to betting oblivion.
On the flip side when you see a red hot favourite in a race that settles at the rear there is often a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 2 to 1 favourite in a race and horses which race is that position have on average a 50 to 1 chance of winning - you've probably got a 'false favourite' on your hands and an opportunity to make some money by pinpointing the likely winner of the race which is sure to be at value odds.

Coming Soon... In Part 2 of our article we will take a closer look inside horse races to see more specifically where the winners come from.

                                                                           www.aussieraces.com