How Likely Is Your Horse To Win?-Aussieraces.com
How Likely Is Your Horse To Win?
When we back horses we tend to slot the bets into different categories - they could be 'a good thing', a ‘cert’, a ‘good bet’, an ‘each way chance’, a ‘value bet’ or even a ‘smokey at odds’. The problem with these types of bet classifications is that they don’t even come close to telling you exactly how likely a horse is to win. Wouldn’t it better to know a horse’s exact percentage chance of winning? Indeed, it’s a case of ‘must know’ for many of the world’s most successful punters who use the Kelly Criterion formula to calculate their bets - as a vital figure in the formula is a horse’s percentage chance of winning.
Say you had a $2000 bet on a horse at odds of $3.50 - could you answer this question - what do the horse’s odds suggest is it’s chance of winning - (a) 34% (b) 29% or (c) 26%? Most punters would struggle to give an immediate answer. However, with so much at stake - it would be pretty important to know how likely you were to win or lose wouldn’t it?
Many ratings providers price their odds to a total of 80% or 90% - as an insurance safeguard in case they get them wrong - so the prices they give do not reflect each horse’s actual chances of winning. Similarly, bookmakers typically set their odds between 110% and 130% - so their odds also do not indicate each horse's actual chances of success.
At Aussieraces.com we provide Ratings for both the Melbourne and Sydney races and we go to great lengths to ensure that our Ratings reflect each horse's true chances of winning. Computer modelling and detailed form analysis are used to calculate each horse’s chances. We then set our prices to exactly 100% - so our Rated Odds reflect the actual chances of each horse winning. Of course all this depends on our Ratings being pretty accurate and we believe that they are. By referring to the Aussieraces.com ‘Rated Price and Equivalent Percentage Chance of Winning Chart’ below, you can see that a horse which we rate at odds of $3.50 actually has a 29% chance of success. This makes betting scenarios much clearer, as rather than just knowing that your horse has ‘a good chance’ in a race, you'll know exactly how good a chance it has.
Aussieraces.com - Rated Price and Equivalent Percentage Chance of Winning Chart
|
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
Price |
% |
|
$1.50 |
67% |
$2.10 |
47% |
$3.50 |
29% |
$6.00 |
17% |
$9.00 |
11% |
$14.00 |
7% |
$20.00 |
5% |
$51.00 |
2% |
|
$1.60 |
64% |
$2.25 |
44% |
$3.75 |
27% |
$6.50 |
15% |
$9.50 |
11% |
$15.00 |
7% |
$21.00 |
5% |
$60.00 |
2% |
|
$1.70 |
60% |
$2.50 |
40% |
$4.00 |
25% |
$7.00 |
14% |
$10.00 |
10% |
$16.00 |
6% |
$26.00 |
4% |
$67.00 |
2% |
|
$1.80 |
56% |
$2.75 |
36% |
$4.50 |
22% |
$7.50 |
13% |
$11.00 |
9% |
$17.00 |
6% |
$31.00 |
3% |
$81.00 |
1% |
|
$1.90 |
53% |
$3.00 |
33% |
$5.00 |
20% |
$8.00 |
13% |
$12.00 |
8% |
$18.00 |
6% |
$34.00 |
3% |
$101.00 |
1% |
|
$2.00 |
50% |
$3.25 |
31% |
$5.50 |
18% |
$8.50 |
12% |
$13.00 |
8% |
$19.00 |
5% |
$41.00 |
2% |
$201.00 |
.5% |
Aussieraces.com 2017